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Japan's Slow Decline
Japan's TFR of 1.20 is higher than South Korea or Taiwan, but still well below replacement. This crowd produces 240 babies per year while its population ages faster than any nation on Earth.
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Japan's fertility rate hit 1.20 in 2023 — a new record low. At that rate, each generation is roughly 40% smaller than the one before it. The government has spent over $40 billion on pro-natalist policies since the 1990s with almost no measurable effect. Japanese women are not simply delaying children — a growing share are opting out entirely, citing career sacrifice, cost, and a domestic division of labor that hasn't changed since their grandmothers' time.
See also: The Marriage Crisis No One Wants to Name